Column 6 · Innovation and New Products · Era 1, Foundations (to 1969)
Innovation Diffusion
Environment and context · Landmark · Cluster II, Resources and Orientation
Description
Rogers described how innovations spread through a social system via adopter categories and communication channels, and Bass formalized adoption as the joint result of innovation and imitation effects, yielding a forecasting model of new product growth.
Managerial Implications
New products spread through a predictable sequence: innovators and early adopters first, then the majority as social proof accumulates. Plan launches in two phases. First, win the early adopters who influence others, accepting small volumes. Then shift spending to reduce risk and friction for the majority. Forecast with adoption curves rather than linear growth, and watch for the stall between early adopters and the mainstream.